Oil price declines ease inflation worries before the Fed decision, lifting gold from the 4000 dollar level to around 4050.
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis: Support, Resistance & Pivot Today (Oct 28, 2026)
Technical score
Short-termdays to 2 weeks
Bearishweak
Medium-termweeks to months
Bearishstrong
Long-termmonths and beyond
Bearishstrong
What drives the technical score
Short-termdays to 2 weeks：Bearish
- Intraday view is bullish
- Active hs bottom pattern on the chart
- Price below the 20-day average
- Daily RSI 39, weak momentum
- Daily MACD below its signal line
- 5-day down 1.2%
Medium-termweeks to months：Bearish
- Daily view is bearish
- Price below the 50-day average
- 20-day average below the 50-day
- 20-day down 2.9%
- Daily MACD below zero
Long-termmonths and beyond：Bearish
- Price below the 40-week average
- 10-week average below the 40-week
- 6-month down 12.6%
- Weekly MACD below its signal line
- Weekly RSI 40, weak momentum
The technical score combines several pieces of technical evidence, including moving-average position, momentum, recent performance, our level views and active chart patterns; more filled segments mean the evidence agrees more strongly. Support and resistance are the nearest levels from the intraday and short-term views. For reference only; not investment advice.
Gold (XAU/USD) 30 MINActive since Oct 27, 2026 23:45 UTC+8
Gold (XAU/USD): On the edge of pivot level
Target level↑ 4,096.82
Pivot level4,028.03
Support3,996.74
Our preference
Above 4,028.03, look for a move towards 4,096.82.
Alternative scenario
Below 4,028.03, expect 3,996.74 and 3,978.11.
Comment
The price is approaching our pivot level at a critical juncture, leaving little room for the asset to reverse its current trajectory. RSI is at 37 and MACD is below its signal line.
Full level ladder
| Resistance 3 | 4,134.13 |
| Resistance 2 | 4,115.48 |
| Resistance 1 | 4,096.82 |
| Price | 4,035.42 |
| Pivot | 4,028.03 |
| Support 2 | 3,996.74 |
| Support 3 | 3,978.11 |
Gold (XAU/USD) DAILYActive since 2026-10-05
Gold (XAU/USD): Target level as a potential turning point
Target level↓ 3,799.26
Pivot level4,446.08
Resistance4,726.72
Our preference
Below 4,446.08, look for a move towards 3,799.26.
Alternative scenario
Above 4,446.08, expect 4,726.72 and 4,893.77.
Comment
Price is approaching our first target at 3,799.26, which may trigger a pullback; a clear break below it would open the way to 3,636.17. RSI is at 41 and MACD is below its signal line.
Full level ladder
| Resistance 3 | 4,893.77 |
| Resistance 2 | 4,726.72 |
| Pivot | 4,446.08 |
| Price | 4,035.42 |
| Support 1 | 3,799.26 |
| Support 2 | 3,636.17 |
| Support 3 | 3,473.08 |
AI market story
Updated 2026-10-28 10:48 UTC+8Gold bounces short term but trend stays bearish
Gold trades at 4,047.94, up 1.43% on the day but down 1.25% over five days and 2.92% over twenty. It sits below the 20-day average of 4,116.87 and the 50-day of 4,279.63, with daily RSI at 40 and MACD below its signal line.
What you should know
Price journey: up or down lately?
The latest day is up 1.43%, but the five-day move is down 1.25% and the twenty-day is down 2.92%, so this looks like a repair bounce after a slide rather than a real turn.
Trend: which way is the bigger picture pointing?
The bigger direction is still down. Price is under the 20-day average at 4,116.87 and the 50-day at 4,279.63, and the daily view stays bearish below the 4,446.08 pivot.
Momentum: gaining or losing strength?
Momentum is weak but not worsening. Daily RSI edged from 41 to 40 and MACD holds below its signal line with little change in the histogram, so this is soft consolidation, not an acceleration lower.
Key levels: which prices matter next?
Watch 4,096.82 and 4,115.48 above, then the 20-day average at 4,116.87. Below, keep an eye on the 4,028.03 intraday pivot, the 3,996.74 first reversal level and the 4,001.71 lower Bollinger band.
Patterns: what is forming on the chart?
A one-hour inverse head and shoulders is forming with a 4,074.47 target and 3,985.61 invalidation, while the daily chart remains bearish, so short-term upside and medium-term downside coexist.
Four-thousand level becomes gold battleground
Spot gold is chopping around the 4,000 mark in a rough 3,978 to 4,026 range, with the 3,978 dip bought and the round-number support holding for now. Institutions call the technicals oversold but say macro does not support a big rally, with firm dollar and yields capping gains.
What you should know
What is the market talking about?
All the talk is about the 4,000 round number. Gold is swinging roughly 20 dollars either side of it, the 3,978 dip was bought, and institutions say technicals are oversold while macro does not support a big rally.
Is the news flow positive or negative?
The news tone leans bearish. Several reports describe choppy declines and an intact downtrend, with a firm dollar and Treasury yields weighing on gold, while only the round-number support looks steady.
How could this news affect the price?
Range trading near 4,000 is the likely near-term path. A break of the 3,978 to 3,988 line would add downside pressure, while a push higher needs the dollar and yields to soften first.
FOMC and core PCE set to jolt gold
The FOMC decision lands at 02:00 on October 29, with the lower bound seen at 3.75 and the upper at 4, both unchanged. In the past 16 releases gold averaged 62.3 dollars of movement over four hours, up to 148.7, rising only 31% of the time. Core PCE is due at 20:30 the same day.
What you should know
What is coming up on the calendar?
The key event is the FOMC decision at 02:00 on October 29, with the lower bound expected at 3.75 and the upper at 4, both unchanged. Later at 20:30 comes September core PCE at 0.3 expected and Q3 annualized GDP at 3 expected.
How much do these events usually move the price?
In the four hours after FOMC releases, gold moved 62.3 dollars on average across 16 cases and up to 148.7, about 3.4 times normal, rising only 31% of the time. After core PCE the four-hour move averaged 46.7 dollars, up to 113.5.
This content was generated with the assistance of AI from the Borearis Research Team's market data and analysis. For reference only; not investment advice. How we produce this content
Volatility stop
Daily downtrendsince 2026-09-08
Short trailing stop4,212.55
Distance from price4.20%
Gold (XAU/USD) is below its daily short trailing stop. Short positions can reference 4,212.55 (4.20% away); it only moves down. A daily close above 4,212.55 signals the trend is strengthening.
Calculated from the 22-day high (low) minus (plus) 3 times the average true range on the daily chart, and it only moves in the trend's favour. A common trailing-stop method, for reference only; not investment advice.
Thick line = trailing stop (green uptrend, red downtrend); vertical line = latest trend change; last 90 daily bars
Technical picture
- Price is below the 20- and 50-day moving averages, a weak medium-term structure.
- Daily RSI is 39, soft momentum.
- Daily MACD is below its signal line; daily momentum is down.
- Price is inside the daily Bollinger Bands (3,999.47 to 4,233.01).
Related economic events this week
| 10-27 22:00 | United States Oct Richmond Fed Manufacturing IndexAfter 23 past releases, Gold (XAU/USD) moved $33.4 on average in 4 hours · max $64.3 | -2 |
| 10-27 22:00 | United States Oct Conference Board Consumer Confidence IndexAfter 24 past releases, Gold (XAU/USD) moved $32.3 on average in 4 hours · max $71.5 | 91.7 |
| 10-29 02:00 | United States FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) HighAfter 16 past releases, Gold (XAU/USD) moved $62.3 on average in 4 hours (3.4× normal) · max $148.7 | 3.75 |
| 10-29 02:00 | United States FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) HighAfter 16 past releases, Gold (XAU/USD) moved $62.3 on average in 4 hours (3.4× normal) · max $148.7 | 4 |
| 10-29 04:30 | United States Alphabet Q3 Earnings Call High | — |
| 10-29 05:00 | United States Microsoft Q3 Earnings Call High | — |
| 10-29 20:30 | United States Sep Core PCE Price Index MoM HighAfter 23 past releases, Gold (XAU/USD) moved $46.7 on average in 4 hours · max $113.5 | 0.3 |
| 10-29 20:30 | United States 3Q Real GDP Annualized QoQ Prelim HighAfter 23 past releases, Gold (XAU/USD) moved $45.9 on average in 4 hours · max $113.5 | 3 |
Times in UTC+8. Grey = forecast. Full economic calendar →
News and sentiment for Gold (XAU/USD)
SentimentNegative 43
Last 24h19 stories
Last 7 days238 stories
7-day sentiment
Gold struggles at the 4000 dollar level; State Street keeps its long-term bullish target but cuts the scenario probability from 70 to 60 percent.
Falling oil prices eased inflation worries and lifted gold, though the Fed decision and high rates still weigh on the metal.
Analyst says gold may still push higher short term before the rate decision, nearing resistance, with an estimated daily range of 85 dollars.
Before the Fed meeting, softer oil supported gold, while positive Middle East diplomacy trimmed part of crude's risk premium.
A Reuters poll cut the 2026 gold forecast but raised 2027; one institution says the worst is priced in and a rebound is likely.
Trade signals for Gold (XAU/USD)
Short-term Signals 30-minute · held a few hours to a day
| Signal time | Bias | Entry | Status | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 10:00 | Bearish | 3,992.03 | Closed at time limit | -0.09 |
| Oct 22, 2026 22:30 | Bearish | 4,050.07 | Closed at time limit | +0.83 |
| Oct 22, 2026 12:00 | Bearish | 4,092.31 | Half profit, rest at break-even | +0.24 |
| Oct 20, 2026 07:30 | Bearish | 4,134.51 | Half profit, rest at break-even | +0.24 |
| Oct 14, 2026 21:00 | Bearish | 4,097.84 | Closed at time limit | -0.60 |
All short-term signals and results →
Swing Signals 1-hour and 4-hour · held a day to a week
No recent swing signals for Gold (XAU/USD).
Chart patterns in play for Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold (XAU/USD)4,035.42
Inverse head & shoulders1 hour
Target4,074.471.27%
Invalid at3,985.61
Three lows with the middle one deepest; a break above the neckline often signals the end of a decline.
FAQ
Where are Gold (XAU/USD) support and resistance levels today?
Intraday resistance: 4,096.82, 4,115.48, 4,134.13. Support: 4,028.03, 3,996.74, 3,978.11. Pivot: 4,028.03 (updated Oct 28, 2026 13:34 UTC+8).
Is Gold (XAU/USD) bullish or bearish now?
Intraday: bullish. Short-term (daily): bearish. Bullish above 4,028.03, targeting 4,096.82 and then 4,115.48.
How has Gold (XAU/USD) been trading lately?
Gold bounces short term but trend stays bearish. Gold trades at 4,047.94, up 1.43% on the day but down 1.25% over five days and 2.92% over twenty. It sits below the 20-day average of 4,116.87 and the 50-day of 4,279.63, with daily RSI at 40 and MACD below its signal line.
How do I read the Gold (XAU/USD) technical score?
Currently short-term bearish, medium-term bearish, long-term bearish. The technical score combines several pieces of technical evidence, such as moving-average position, momentum, recent performance, our level views and active chart patterns, into short-, intermediate- and long-term readings. More filled segments mean the evidence points the same way; neutral means bullish and bearish evidence are balanced.
Where should a stop loss go on Gold (XAU/USD)?
Gold (XAU/USD) is below its daily short trailing stop. Short positions can reference 4,212.55 (4.20% away); it only moves down. A daily close above 4,212.55 signals the trend is strengthening.
Which economic events matter for Gold (XAU/USD) next?
FOMC and core PCE set to jolt gold. The FOMC decision lands at 02:00 on October 29, with the lower bound seen at 3.75 and the upper at 4, both unchanged. In the past 16 releases gold averaged 62.3 dollars of movement over four hours, up to 148.7, rising only 31% of the time. Core PCE is due at 20:30 the same day.
What is the pivot?
The pivot is the line in the sand for the view. In a bullish view it sits below price; a close below it invalidates the view and a new set of levels is drawn. The reverse applies to a bearish view.
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