The dollar is increasingly tied to the AI investment boom; if that trade reverses, safe-haven flows may favor yen and franc over the dollar.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Support, Resistance & Pivot Today (Oct 28, 2026)
Technical score
—
Short-termdays to 2 weeks
Neutral
Medium-termweeks to months
Bullishclear
Long-termmonths and beyond
Bearishmoderate
What drives the technical score
Short-termdays to 2 weeks：Neutral
- Intraday view is bullish
- Price above the 20-day average
- Daily MACD below its signal line
- Active hs top pattern on the chart
- Daily RSI 52, neutral momentum
- 5-day change -0.2%, little net move
Medium-termweeks to months：Bullish
- Daily view is bullish
- Price above the 50-day average
- 20-day average above the 50-day
- Daily MACD above zero
- 20-day change +0.4%, little net move
Long-termmonths and beyond：Bearish
- Price below the 40-week average
- 10-week average below the 40-week
- Weekly MACD below its signal line
- 6-month change +0.6%, little net move
- Weekly RSI 50, neutral momentum
The technical score combines several pieces of technical evidence, including moving-average position, momentum, recent performance, our level views and active chart patterns; more filled segments mean the evidence agrees more strongly. Support and resistance are the nearest levels from the intraday and short-term views. For reference only; not investment advice.
USD/JPY 30 MINActive since Oct 26, 2026 23:45 UTC+8
USD/JPY: Target level as a potential turning point
Target level↑ 158.068
Pivot level157.187
Support156.795
Our preference
Above 157.187, look for a move towards 158.068.
Alternative scenario
Below 157.187, expect 156.795 and 156.562.
Comment
Price is approaching our first target at 158.068, which may trigger a pullback; a clear break above it would open the way to 158.302. RSI is at 57 and MACD is below its signal line.
Full level ladder
| Resistance 3 | 158.535 |
| Resistance 2 | 158.302 |
| Resistance 1 | 158.068 |
| Price | 157.959 |
| Pivot | 157.187 |
| Support 2 | 156.795 |
| Support 3 | 156.562 |
USD/JPY DAILYActive since 2026-09-28
USD/JPY: Bullish above the pivot
Target level↑ 163.364
Pivot level154.005
Support150.259
Our preference
Above 154.005, look for a move towards 163.364.
Alternative scenario
Below 154.005, expect 150.259 and 148.029.
Comment
As long as price holds above the pivot, the upside structure remains intact. RSI is at 52 and MACD is below its signal line.
Full level ladder
| Resistance 3 | 167.878 |
| Resistance 2 | 165.621 |
| Resistance 1 | 163.364 |
| Price | 157.959 |
| Pivot | 154.005 |
| Support 2 | 150.259 |
| Support 3 | 148.029 |
AI market story
Updated 2026-10-28 13:48 UTC+8USD/JPY short-term bias soft, medium-term trend up
USD/JPY trades at 157.812, up 0.29% in 1 day, down 0.19% in 5 days and up 0.36% in 20 days. Price sits near the 20-day average of 157.944, RSI eased from 54 to 51, and MACD is below its signal with the histogram shrinking 3 days running.
What you should know
Price journey: up or down lately?
Recent action is choppy: up 0.29% in 1 day but down 0.19% in 5 days and up 0.36% in 20 days, with price at 157.812 hovering around the 20-day average of 157.944.
Trend: which way is the bigger picture pointing?
The bigger picture stays bullish: the daily view is up with a pivot at 154.005 and targets at 163.364 and 165.621, though the technical score flags a bearish long-term tilt.
Momentum: gaining or losing strength?
Momentum is fading: RSI fell from 54 five days ago to 51, MACD sits below its signal line, and the histogram has contracted for 3 straight days.
Key levels: which prices matter next?
Watch 158.919 at the upper Bollinger band and the 20-day high of 158.949 above, and 156.970 at the lower band plus the 157.944 average below; the intraday pivot at 157.187 must hold for the bullish case.
Patterns: what is forming on the chart?
Two bearish patterns are forming: a 15-minute head-and-shoulders targeting 157.566 with invalidation at 158.007, and a 5-minute double top targeting 157.721 with invalidation at 158.001.
Aussie-yen hits 111, USD/JPY news flow quiet
The only item is Aussie-yen touching the 111.00 level, up 0.08% on the day, with limited direct read-through for USD/JPY. USD/JPY trades at 157.812, up 0.29% in 1 day, so the news tone is neutral overall.
What you should know
What is the market talking about?
The market is talking about Aussie-yen touching the 111.00 level, last at 111.00 and up 0.08% on the day, so the focus is on the cross rather than USD/JPY itself.
Is the news flow positive or negative?
The news tone is neutral: the item is flagged neutral and gives no direct steer on the dollar or the yen, so its push on USD/JPY is limited.
How could this news affect the price?
The impact is likely small: Aussie-yen is only indirectly linked to USD/JPY, so near-term price action is more likely driven by the 157.187 intraday pivot and the 158.919 upper Bollinger band.
FOMC and BOJ decisions back-to-back lift volatility
The US FOMC decision lands 10-29 02:00 with the lower bound seen at 3.75 and upper at 4; over the past 16 releases USD/JPY averaged 80.3 points in the following 4 hours, peaked at 155.2, rose 69% of the time and ran about 2.9 times normal. The BOJ decision follows 10-30 11:30.
What you should know
What is coming up on the calendar?
Next up is the US FOMC decision with the lower bound expected at 3.75 and upper at 4, then Japan October Tokyo CPI at 2.7% expected on 10-30 07:30, and the BOJ rate decision on 10-30 11:30, all high importance.
How much do these events usually move the price?
After the past 16 FOMC releases, USD/JPY averaged 80.3 points over 4 hours, peaked at 155.2, rose 69% of the time and ran about 2.9 times normal; Tokyo CPI averaged 52.8 points, peaked at 133.9 and ran about 1.1 times normal.
This content was generated with the assistance of AI from the Borearis Research Team's market data and analysis. For reference only; not investment advice. How we produce this content
Volatility stop
Daily downtrendsince 2026-10-22
Short trailing stop159.146
Distance from price0.75%
USD/JPY is below its daily short trailing stop. Short positions can reference 159.146 (0.75% away); it only moves down. A daily close above 159.146 signals the trend is strengthening.
Calculated from the 22-day high (low) minus (plus) 3 times the average true range on the daily chart, and it only moves in the trend's favour. A common trailing-stop method, for reference only; not investment advice.
Thick line = trailing stop (green uptrend, red downtrend); vertical line = latest trend change; last 90 daily bars
Technical picture
- Price is above the 20- and 50-day moving averages, a constructive medium-term structure.
- Daily RSI is 52, neutral momentum.
- Daily MACD is below its signal line; daily momentum is down.
- Price is inside the daily Bollinger Bands (156.979 to 158.924).
Related economic events this week
| 10-27 22:00 | United States Oct Richmond Fed Manufacturing IndexAfter 23 past releases, USD/JPY moved 42.2 pips on average in 4 hours · max 75.7 pips | -2 |
| 10-27 22:00 | United States Oct Conference Board Consumer Confidence IndexAfter 24 past releases, USD/JPY moved 40.0 pips on average in 4 hours · max 75.7 pips | 91.7 |
| 10-29 02:00 | United States FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) HighAfter 16 past releases, USD/JPY moved 80.3 pips on average in 4 hours (2.9× normal) · max 155.2 pips | 3.75 |
| 10-29 02:00 | United States FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) HighAfter 16 past releases, USD/JPY moved 80.3 pips on average in 4 hours (2.9× normal) · max 155.2 pips | 4 |
| 10-29 04:30 | United States Alphabet Q3 Earnings Call High | — |
| 10-30 07:30 | Japan Oct Tokyo CPI YoY HighAfter 24 past releases, USD/JPY moved 52.8 pips on average in 4 hours · max 133.9 pips | 2.7 |
| 10-30 11:30 | Japan BOJ Rate Decision High | — |
| 10-30 17:45 | Japan Kioxia Earnings Call High | — |
Times in UTC+8. Grey = forecast. Full economic calendar →
News and sentiment for USD/JPY
SentimentNegative 42
Last 24h5 stories
Last 7 days22 stories
7-day sentiment
AUDJPY touched the 111.00 level and was last at 111.00, up 0.08% on the day, showing mild Aussie strength versus the yen.
Japan's finance minister Katayama reiterated readiness for decisive FX action, warning yen shorts as the 200-day average caps gains.
Hawkish Fed stance and geopolitical risk support the dollar; USDJPY rose to 157.70, testing the 200-period EMA.
Katayama again warned yen shorts; USDJPY held above 157 with the 200-day average near 158.50 as key resistance.
A technical chart lists daily pivot support and resistance levels for the dollar and major currency pairs.
Trade signals for USD/JPY
Short-term Signals 30-minute · held a few hours to a day
| Signal time | Bias | Entry | Status | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2026 17:00 | Bearish | 157.692 | Stopped out | -1.08−19.8 pips |
| Oct 15, 2026 16:00 | Bearish | 157.845 | Stopped out | -1.07−22.0 pips |
| Oct 14, 2026 16:00 | Bullish | 158.356 | Target hit | +2.90+43.5 pips |
| Oct 12, 2026 17:00 | Bullish | 158.480 | Closed at time limit | +0.95+18.6 pips |
| Oct 08, 2026 17:30 | Bullish | 158.267 | Stopped out | -1.08−19.3 pips |
All short-term signals and results →
Swing Signals 1-hour and 4-hour · held a day to a week
No recent swing signals for USD/JPY.
Chart patterns in play for USD/JPY
USD/JPY157.959
Head & shoulders15 min
Target157.5660.14%
Invalid at158.007
Three highs with the middle one tallest; a break below the neckline often signals the end of an advance.
FAQ
Where are USD/JPY support and resistance levels today?
Intraday resistance: 158.068, 158.302, 158.535. Support: 157.187, 156.795, 156.562. Pivot: 157.187 (updated Oct 28, 2026 15:09 UTC+8).
Is USD/JPY bullish or bearish now?
Intraday: bullish. Short-term (daily): bullish. Bullish above 157.187, targeting 158.068 and then 158.302.
How has USD/JPY been trading lately?
USD/JPY short-term bias soft, medium-term trend up. USD/JPY trades at 157.812, up 0.29% in 1 day, down 0.19% in 5 days and up 0.36% in 20 days. Price sits near the 20-day average of 157.944, RSI eased from 54 to 51, and MACD is below its signal with the histogram shrinking 3 days running.
How do I read the USD/JPY technical score?
Currently short-term neutral, medium-term bullish, long-term bearish. The technical score combines several pieces of technical evidence, such as moving-average position, momentum, recent performance, our level views and active chart patterns, into short-, intermediate- and long-term readings. More filled segments mean the evidence points the same way; neutral means bullish and bearish evidence are balanced.
Where should a stop loss go on USD/JPY?
USD/JPY is below its daily short trailing stop. Short positions can reference 159.146 (0.75% away); it only moves down. A daily close above 159.146 signals the trend is strengthening.
Which economic events matter for USD/JPY next?
FOMC and BOJ decisions back-to-back lift volatility. The US FOMC decision lands 10-29 02:00 with the lower bound seen at 3.75 and upper at 4; over the past 16 releases USD/JPY averaged 80.3 points in the following 4 hours, peaked at 155.2, rose 69% of the time and ran about 2.9 times normal. The BOJ decision follows 10-30 11:30.
What is the pivot?
The pivot is the line in the sand for the view. In a bullish view it sits below price; a close below it invalidates the view and a new set of levels is drawn. The reverse applies to a bearish view.
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