Ahead of the ECB decision, markets expect rates unchanged while French bond turmoil is watched, leaving the euro exposed to downside risk.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Support, Resistance & Pivot Today (Oct 28, 2026)
Technical score
Short-termdays to 2 weeks
Bearishweak
Medium-termweeks to months
Bearishstrong
Long-termmonths and beyond
Bearishstrong
What drives the technical score
Short-termdays to 2 weeks：Bearish
- Intraday view is bullish
- Daily MACD above its signal line
- Price below the 20-day average
- Daily RSI 27, weak momentum
- 5-day down 0.9%
Medium-termweeks to months：Bearish
- Daily view is bearish
- Price below the 50-day average
- 20-day average below the 50-day
- 20-day down 1.9%
- Daily MACD below zero
Long-termmonths and beyond：Bearish
- Price below the 40-week average
- 10-week average below the 40-week
- 6-month down 5.2%
- Weekly MACD below its signal line
- Weekly RSI 32, weak momentum
The technical score combines several pieces of technical evidence, including moving-average position, momentum, recent performance, our level views and active chart patterns; more filled segments mean the evidence agrees more strongly. Support and resistance are the nearest levels from the intraday and short-term views. For reference only; not investment advice.
EUR/USD 30 MINActive since Oct 28, 2026 10:00 UTC+8
EUR/USD: Bullish above the pivot
Target level↑ 1.11500
Pivot level1.11040
Support1.10843
Our preference
Above 1.11040, look for a move towards 1.11500.
Alternative scenario
Below 1.11040, expect 1.10843 and 1.10726.
Comment
As long as price holds above the pivot, the upside structure remains intact. RSI is at 28 and MACD is below its signal line.
Full level ladder
| Resistance 3 | 1.11735 |
| Resistance 2 | 1.11618 |
| Resistance 1 | 1.11500 |
| Price | 1.11139 |
| Pivot | 1.11040 |
| Support 2 | 1.10843 |
| Support 3 | 1.10726 |
EUR/USD DAILYActive since 2026-10-12
EUR/USD: Target level as a potential turning point
Target level↓ 1.10269
Pivot level1.13504
Resistance1.14868
Our preference
Below 1.13504, look for a move towards 1.10269.
Alternative scenario
Above 1.13504, expect 1.14868 and 1.15679.
Comment
Price is approaching our first target at 1.10269, which may trigger a pullback; a clear break below it would open the way to 1.09461. RSI is at 28 and MACD is above its signal line.
Full level ladder
| Resistance 3 | 1.15679 |
| Resistance 2 | 1.14868 |
| Pivot | 1.13504 |
| Price | 1.11139 |
| Support 1 | 1.10269 |
| Support 2 | 1.09461 |
| Support 3 | 1.08653 |
AI market story
Updated 2026-10-28 13:48 UTC+8EUR bounces intraday but daily trend stays bearish
EUR/USD trades at 1.11178, down 0.42% on the day, 0.89% over five days and 1.89% over twenty days, with daily RSI at 27 near the 1.11128 twenty-day low. Price sits below the 20-day 1.12049 and 50-day 1.14086 averages, keeping the technical picture bearish across horizons.
What you should know
Price journey: up or down lately?
It has been falling: down 0.42% on the day, 0.89% over five days and 1.89% over twenty days, with price at 1.11178 close to the 1.11128 twenty-day low, so the recent tone is clearly weak.
Trend: which way is the bigger picture pointing?
The bigger direction is down: price is below the daily 20-day average at 1.12049 and the 50-day at 1.14086, and the technical read is bearish short, medium and long term, with daily targets at 1.10269 and 1.09461.
Momentum: gaining or losing strength?
Momentum is weak but flattening: daily RSI fell from 37 five days ago to 27, a low zone, while MACD sits above its signal line but the histogram has shrunk for three straight days, so downside momentum persists but is easing.
Key levels: which prices matter next?
Watch 1.11500 and 1.11618 above, with the daily pivot at 1.13504 as the bearish line in the sand; below, watch 1.11128 and 1.11040, and a break of 1.10843 would void the intraday bullish view.
Fragile sentiment caps euro before ECB decision
Focus is on the ECB decision on 29 October, widely expected to hold rates, with attention on whether French bond turmoil pushes policy dovish. The mainstream view sees little near-term dovish shift and keeps a December hike possible, but fragile sentiment and pressure on rates and equities leave EUR downside risk elevated.
What you should know
What is the market talking about?
The market is talking about the ECB decision on 29 October, widely expected to keep rates unchanged, and watching whether French bond turmoil pushes policy dovish, while the mainstream view sees little near-term dovish shift and a December hike still possible.
Is the news flow positive or negative?
The news tone leans bearish: the report says sentiment is fragile, rates and equities are under pressure, and EUR downside risk is elevated, which is unfavourable for the euro.
How could this news affect the price?
If rates are held without a clear dovish turn, attention stays on French bonds and the December hike possibility; with sentiment fragile, bearish pressure on EUR is likely to push price toward the lower key levels.
Back-to-back Fed and ECB decisions to lift euro volatility
Two high-impact decisions land on 29 October: the US FOMC rate decision and the ECB rate decision. Over the past 16 FOMC releases, EUR/USD moved 67.0 points on average and up to 108.9 points in the following four hours, about 3.4 times normal; the ECB decision averaged 51.3 points and up to 80.5 points.
What you should know
What is coming up on the calendar?
The key events are the US FOMC rate decision at 02:00 on 29 October, with the lower and upper bounds expected at 3.75 and 4 versus the same prior values, then the ECB at 21:15 with the main refinancing rate at 2.65, marginal lending rate at 2.9 and deposit rate at 2.5, all expected unchanged.
How much do these events usually move the price?
After the past 16 FOMC releases, EUR/USD averaged 67.0 points and up to 108.9 points in four hours, about 3.4 times normal, with 38% closing higher; after the ECB decision it averaged 51.3 points and up to 80.5 points, about 1.2 times normal, with 62% closing higher.
This content was generated with the assistance of AI from the Borearis Research Team's market data and analysis. For reference only; not investment advice. How we produce this content
Volatility stop
Daily downtrendsince 2026-09-14
Short trailing stop1.12838
Distance from price1.51%
EUR/USD is below its daily short trailing stop. Short positions can reference 1.12838 (1.51% away); it only moves down. A daily close above 1.12838 signals the trend is strengthening.
Calculated from the 22-day high (low) minus (plus) 3 times the average true range on the daily chart, and it only moves in the trend's favour. A common trailing-stop method, for reference only; not investment advice.
Thick line = trailing stop (green uptrend, red downtrend); vertical line = latest trend change; last 90 daily bars
Technical picture
- Price is below the 20- and 50-day moving averages, a weak medium-term structure.
- Daily RSI is 27, oversold; rebounds are more likely after sharp drops.
- Daily MACD is above its signal line; daily momentum is up.
- Price is below the daily lower Bollinger Band (1.11311): weak, but stretched.
Related economic events this week
| 10-27 22:00 | United States Oct Richmond Fed Manufacturing IndexAfter 23 past releases, EUR/USD moved 31.9 pips on average in 4 hours · max 69.3 pips | -2 |
| 10-27 22:00 | United States Oct Conference Board Consumer Confidence IndexAfter 24 past releases, EUR/USD moved 31.3 pips on average in 4 hours · max 50.0 pips | 91.7 |
| 10-29 02:00 | United States FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) HighAfter 16 past releases, EUR/USD moved 67.0 pips on average in 4 hours (3.4× normal) · max 108.9 pips | 3.75 |
| 10-29 02:00 | United States FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) HighAfter 16 past releases, EUR/USD moved 67.0 pips on average in 4 hours (3.4× normal) · max 108.9 pips | 4 |
| 10-29 04:30 | United States Alphabet Q3 Earnings Call High | — |
| 10-29 21:15 | Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Rate HighAfter 16 past releases, EUR/USD moved 51.3 pips on average in 4 hours (1.2× normal) · max 80.5 pips | 2.65 |
| 10-29 21:15 | Eurozone ECB Marginal Lending Rate HighAfter 16 past releases, EUR/USD moved 51.3 pips on average in 4 hours (1.2× normal) · max 80.5 pips | 2.9 |
| 10-29 21:15 | Eurozone ECB Deposit Facility Rate HighAfter 16 past releases, EUR/USD moved 51.3 pips on average in 4 hours (1.2× normal) · max 80.5 pips | 2.5 |
Times in UTC+8. Grey = forecast. Full economic calendar →
News and sentiment for EUR/USD
SentimentNegative 43
Last 24h4 stories
Last 7 days34 stories
7-day sentiment
EUR/USD falls as Fed rate expectations, IPO activity and geopolitics combine to support the dollar.
EUR/USD analysis shows the euro continuing its decline, with the pair remaining under pressure.
EUR/USD trading signals suggest a bullish bias above 1.1135, awaiting a rebound off the moving average.
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Trade signals for EUR/USD
Short-term Signals 30-minute · held a few hours to a day
| Signal time | Bias | Entry | Status | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 16:00 | Bearish | 1.12176 | Stopped out | -1.13−10.3 pips |
| Oct 20, 2026 16:30 | Bearish | 1.12247 | Stopped out | -1.12−10.8 pips |
| Oct 09, 2026 16:30 | Bearish | 1.12224 | Closed at time limit | +2.32+25.3 pips |
| Aug 18, 2026 17:30 | Bullish | 1.15775 | Closed at time limit | +0.21+2.3 pips |
| Aug 12, 2026 17:00 | Bullish | 1.15394 | Stopped out | -1.19−7.4 pips |
All short-term signals and results →
Swing Signals 1-hour and 4-hour · held a day to a week
No recent swing signals for EUR/USD.
Chart patterns in play for EUR/USD
EUR/USD1.11139
Bullish AB=CD15 min
Target1.114180.10%
Invalid at1.11122
Two roughly equal legs (AB ≈ CD) separated by a retracement (BC); price often stalls or turns when D completes.
FAQ
Where are EUR/USD support and resistance levels today?
Intraday resistance: 1.11500, 1.11618, 1.11735. Support: 1.11040, 1.10843, 1.10726. Pivot: 1.11040 (updated Oct 28, 2026 15:09 UTC+8).
Is EUR/USD bullish or bearish now?
Intraday: bullish. Short-term (daily): bearish. Bullish above 1.11040, targeting 1.11500 and then 1.11618.
How has EUR/USD been trading lately?
EUR bounces intraday but daily trend stays bearish. EUR/USD trades at 1.11178, down 0.42% on the day, 0.89% over five days and 1.89% over twenty days, with daily RSI at 27 near the 1.11128 twenty-day low. Price sits below the 20-day 1.12049 and 50-day 1.14086 averages, keeping the technical picture bearish across horizons.
How do I read the EUR/USD technical score?
Currently short-term bearish, medium-term bearish, long-term bearish. The technical score combines several pieces of technical evidence, such as moving-average position, momentum, recent performance, our level views and active chart patterns, into short-, intermediate- and long-term readings. More filled segments mean the evidence points the same way; neutral means bullish and bearish evidence are balanced.
Where should a stop loss go on EUR/USD?
EUR/USD is below its daily short trailing stop. Short positions can reference 1.12838 (1.51% away); it only moves down. A daily close above 1.12838 signals the trend is strengthening.
Which economic events matter for EUR/USD next?
Back-to-back Fed and ECB decisions to lift euro volatility. Two high-impact decisions land on 29 October: the US FOMC rate decision and the ECB rate decision. Over the past 16 FOMC releases, EUR/USD moved 67.0 points on average and up to 108.9 points in the following four hours, about 3.4 times normal; the ECB decision averaged 51.3 points and up to 80.5 points.
What is the pivot?
The pivot is the line in the sand for the view. In a bullish view it sits below price; a close below it invalidates the view and a new set of levels is drawn. The reverse applies to a bearish view.
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