Weaker oil erodes Canada's commodity support; USDCAD rose two days above 1.4000 as markets await both central bank decisions.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Support, Resistance & Pivot Today (Oct 28, 2026)
Technical score
Short-termdays to 2 weeks
Bearishweak
—
Medium-termweeks to months
Neutral
Long-termmonths and beyond
Bullishclear
What drives the technical score
Short-termdays to 2 weeks：Bearish
- Intraday view is bullish
- Price below the 20-day average
- Daily MACD below its signal line
- Daily RSI 45, neutral momentum
- 5-day change -0.1%, little net move
Medium-termweeks to months：Neutral
- Price above the 50-day average
- 20-day average above the 50-day
- Daily view is bearish
- Daily MACD below zero
- 20-day change -1.0%, little net move
Long-termmonths and beyond：Bullish
- Price above the 40-week average
- 10-week average above the 40-week
- 6-month up 3.5%
- Weekly MACD above its signal line
- Weekly RSI 53, neutral momentum
The technical score combines several pieces of technical evidence, including moving-average position, momentum, recent performance, our level views and active chart patterns; more filled segments mean the evidence agrees more strongly. Support and resistance are the nearest levels from the intraday and short-term views. For reference only; not investment advice.
USD/CAD 30 MINActive since Oct 28, 2026 03:20 UTC+8
USD/CAD: Bullish above the pivot
Target level↑ 1.40816
Pivot level1.40305
Support1.40068
Our preference
Above 1.40305, look for a move towards 1.40816.
Alternative scenario
Below 1.40305, expect 1.40068 and 1.39927.
Comment
As long as price holds above the pivot, the upside structure remains intact. RSI is at 56 and MACD is below its signal line.
Full level ladder
| Resistance 3 | 1.41098 |
| Resistance 2 | 1.40957 |
| Resistance 1 | 1.40816 |
| Price | 1.40583 |
| Pivot | 1.40305 |
| Support 2 | 1.40068 |
| Support 3 | 1.39927 |
USD/CAD DAILYActive since 2026-10-26
USD/CAD: Bearish below the pivot
Target level↓ 1.37742
Pivot level1.41473
Resistance1.43112
Our preference
Below 1.41473, look for a move towards 1.37742.
Alternative scenario
Above 1.41473, expect 1.43112 and 1.44087.
Comment
As long as price stays below the pivot, the downside structure remains intact. RSI is at 44 and MACD is below its signal line.
Full level ladder
| Resistance 3 | 1.44087 |
| Resistance 2 | 1.43112 |
| Pivot | 1.41473 |
| Price | 1.40583 |
| Support 1 | 1.37742 |
| Support 2 | 1.36771 |
| Support 3 | 1.35799 |
AI market story
Updated 2026-10-28 10:48 UTC+8USD/CAD near-term bearish but intraday bounce holds
Price is 1.40608, up 0.27% on the day but down 1.0% over 20 days, sitting below the 20-day average of 1.41531 and above the 50-day of 1.40216. Daily RSI recovered to 46 while MACD stays below its signal with a third shrinking bar; the 30-minute view is bullish.
What you should know
Price journey: up or down lately?
The last day is up, gaining 0.27%, but the 5-day is down 0.12% and the 20-day down 1.0%. At 1.40608 price sits in the lower half of the 1.39683 to 1.42999 range, so this looks like a short bounce inside a mid-term pullback.
Trend: which way is the bigger picture pointing?
The bigger picture is short-term bearish, medium-term neutral and long-term bullish. The daily view is bearish with a pivot at 1.41473 and targets at 1.37742 then 1.36771, yet price still holds above the 50-day average of 1.40216.
Momentum: gaining or losing strength?
Daily momentum is weak but fading. RSI rose from 43 five days ago to 46, and MACD remains below its signal, though the histogram has shrunk for three straight days. The 30-minute view is bullish, so very short-term momentum is improving.
Key levels: which prices matter next?
Watch 1.40816 and 1.40957 on the upside, then the daily pivot at 1.41473. On the downside watch the intraday pivot at 1.40305 and the first reversal level at 1.40068, then the 50-day average at 1.40216 and the lower Bollinger band at 1.39598.
Back-to-back central bank decisions set to lift CAD volatility
The key event is the US FOMC decision on 10-29 at 02:00, with the upper bound expected at 4 and lower at 3.75; over the past 16 releases USD/CAD averaged 52.5 points in four hours, peaked at 96.1, rose 69% of the time and ran about 2.1 times normal. The Bank of Canada reports first at 21:45 on 10-28, expected at 2.25.
What you should know
What is coming up on the calendar?
First the Bank of Canada policy rate on 10-28 at 21:45, expected at 2.25 versus 2.25 prior. Then the US FOMC decision on 10-29 at 02:00, with bounds expected at 3.75 and 4. On 10-30 at 20:30 Canada releases August GDP year-on-year and month-on-month, the latter expected at 0.2 versus 0 prior.
How much do these events usually move the price?
After the Bank of Canada release USD/CAD averaged 41.9 points in four hours and peaked at 65.8, about 1.1 times normal. The FOMC averaged 52.5 points and peaked at 96.1, about 2.1 times normal, rising 69% of the time. Canadian GDP averaged 53.0 points and peaked at 166.7, about 1.3 times normal.
This content was generated with the assistance of AI from the Borearis Research Team's market data and analysis. For reference only; not investment advice. How we produce this content
Volatility stop
Daily downtrendsince 2026-10-19
Short trailing stop1.41467
Distance from price0.62%
USD/CAD is below its daily short trailing stop. Short positions can reference 1.41467 (0.62% away); it only moves down. A daily close above 1.41467 signals the trend is strengthening.
Calculated from the 22-day high (low) minus (plus) 3 times the average true range on the daily chart, and it only moves in the trend's favour. A common trailing-stop method, for reference only; not investment advice.
Thick line = trailing stop (green uptrend, red downtrend); vertical line = latest trend change; last 90 daily bars
Technical picture
- Price sits between the 20- and 50-day moving averages; the medium-term trend is undecided.
- Daily RSI is 45, neutral momentum.
- Daily MACD is below its signal line; daily momentum is down.
- Price is inside the daily Bollinger Bands (1.39594 to 1.43464).
Related economic events this week
| 10-27 22:00 | United States Oct Richmond Fed Manufacturing IndexAfter 23 past releases, USD/CAD moved 34.0 pips on average in 4 hours · max 65.8 pips | -2 |
| 10-27 22:00 | United States Oct Conference Board Consumer Confidence IndexAfter 24 past releases, USD/CAD moved 34.1 pips on average in 4 hours · max 61.7 pips | 91.7 |
| 10-28 21:45 | Canada Central Bank Policy Rate HighAfter 16 past releases, USD/CAD moved 41.9 pips on average in 4 hours · max 65.8 pips | 2.25 |
| 10-29 02:00 | United States FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) HighAfter 16 past releases, USD/CAD moved 52.5 pips on average in 4 hours (2.1× normal) · max 96.1 pips | 3.75 |
| 10-29 02:00 | United States FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) HighAfter 16 past releases, USD/CAD moved 52.5 pips on average in 4 hours (2.1× normal) · max 96.1 pips | 4 |
| 10-29 04:30 | United States Alphabet Q3 Earnings Call High | — |
| 10-30 20:30 | Canada Aug GDP YoYAfter 24 past releases, USD/CAD moved 53.0 pips on average in 4 hours (1.3× normal) · max 166.7 pips | — |
| 10-30 20:30 | Canada Aug GDP MoMAfter 24 past releases, USD/CAD moved 53.0 pips on average in 4 hours (1.3× normal) · max 166.7 pips | 0.2 |
Times in UTC+8. Grey = forecast. Full economic calendar →
News and sentiment for USD/CAD
SentimentNeutral 51
Last 24h1 stories
Last 7 days25 stories
7-day sentiment
Markets price an 85 percent chance of a Bank of Canada hike this week, keeping USDCAD rangebound with CAD supported.
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The daily USDCAD outlook is published, with markets focused on oil prices and the policy outlooks of both central banks.
Fading safe-haven demand and lower oil prices lift USDCAD near 1.4000 in a rebound, with forces offsetting each other.
Trade signals for USD/CAD
Short-term Signals 30-minute · held a few hours to a day
| Signal time | Bias | Entry | Status | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2026 18:00 | Bearish | 1.40158 | Stopped out | -1.16−13.3 pips |
| Oct 23, 2026 17:00 | Bearish | 1.40085 | Target hit | +2.80+25.5 pips |
| Oct 21, 2026 18:00 | Bearish | 1.40508 | Stopped out | -1.14−14.5 pips |
| Sep 29, 2026 16:30 | Bullish | 1.41917 | Stopped out | -1.17−12.4 pips |
| Sep 23, 2026 16:00 | Bullish | 1.40899 | Stopped out | -1.20−11.0 pips |
All short-term signals and results →
Swing Signals 1-hour and 4-hour · held a day to a week
No recent swing signals for USD/CAD.
Chart patterns in play for USD/CAD
No active 15-minute to 4-hour patterns for USD/CAD right now.
FAQ
Where are USD/CAD support and resistance levels today?
Intraday resistance: 1.40816, 1.40957, 1.41098. Support: 1.40305, 1.40068, 1.39927. Pivot: 1.40305 (updated Oct 28, 2026 15:09 UTC+8).
Is USD/CAD bullish or bearish now?
Intraday: bullish. Short-term (daily): bearish. Bullish above 1.40305, targeting 1.40816 and then 1.40957.
How has USD/CAD been trading lately?
USD/CAD near-term bearish but intraday bounce holds. Price is 1.40608, up 0.27% on the day but down 1.0% over 20 days, sitting below the 20-day average of 1.41531 and above the 50-day of 1.40216. Daily RSI recovered to 46 while MACD stays below its signal with a third shrinking bar; the 30-minute view is bullish.
How do I read the USD/CAD technical score?
Currently short-term bearish, medium-term neutral, long-term bullish. The technical score combines several pieces of technical evidence, such as moving-average position, momentum, recent performance, our level views and active chart patterns, into short-, intermediate- and long-term readings. More filled segments mean the evidence points the same way; neutral means bullish and bearish evidence are balanced.
Where should a stop loss go on USD/CAD?
USD/CAD is below its daily short trailing stop. Short positions can reference 1.41467 (0.62% away); it only moves down. A daily close above 1.41467 signals the trend is strengthening.
Which economic events matter for USD/CAD next?
Back-to-back central bank decisions set to lift CAD volatility. The key event is the US FOMC decision on 10-29 at 02:00, with the upper bound expected at 4 and lower at 3.75; over the past 16 releases USD/CAD averaged 52.5 points in four hours, peaked at 96.1, rose 69% of the time and ran about 2.1 times normal. The Bank of Canada reports first at 21:45 on 10-28, expected at 2.25.
What is the pivot?
The pivot is the line in the sand for the view. In a bullish view it sits below price; a close below it invalidates the view and a new set of levels is drawn. The reverse applies to a bearish view.
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