New Zealand's central bank unexpectedly holds rates at 2.75 percent, sending the kiwi down 1.5 percent to a two-week low.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Support, Resistance & Pivot Today (Oct 28, 2026)
Technical score
Short-termdays to 2 weeks
Bearishmoderate
Medium-termweeks to months
Bearishclear
Long-termmonths and beyond
Bearishstrong
What drives the technical score
Short-termdays to 2 weeks：Bearish
- Daily MACD above its signal line
- Intraday view is bearish
- Price below the 20-day average
- Daily RSI 38, weak momentum
- Active bear flag pattern on the chart
- 5-day change +0.0%, little net move
Medium-termweeks to months：Bearish
- Daily view is bearish
- Price below the 50-day average
- 20-day average below the 50-day
- Daily MACD below zero
- 20-day change +0.7%, little net move
Long-termmonths and beyond：Bearish
- Price below the 40-week average
- 10-week average below the 40-week
- 6-month down 4.8%
- Weekly MACD below its signal line
- Weekly RSI 40, weak momentum
The technical score combines several pieces of technical evidence, including moving-average position, momentum, recent performance, our level views and active chart patterns; more filled segments mean the evidence agrees more strongly. Support and resistance are the nearest levels from the intraday and short-term views. For reference only; not investment advice.
NZD/USD 30 MINActive since Oct 28, 2026 10:00 UTC+8
NZD/USD: Bearish below the pivot
Target level↓ 0.55841
Pivot level0.56300
Resistance0.56439
Our preference
Below 0.56300, look for a move towards 0.55841.
Alternative scenario
Above 0.56300, expect 0.56439 and 0.56522.
Comment
As long as price stays below the pivot, the downside structure remains intact. RSI is at 30 and MACD is above its signal line.
Full level ladder
| Resistance 3 | 0.56522 |
| Resistance 2 | 0.56439 |
| Pivot | 0.56300 |
| Price | 0.56111 |
| Support 1 | 0.55841 |
| Support 2 | 0.55758 |
| Support 3 | 0.55675 |
NZD/USD DAILYActive since 2026-09-28
NZD/USD: Target level as a potential turning point
Target level↓ 0.55151
Pivot level0.57680
Resistance0.58829
Our preference
Below 0.57680, look for a move towards 0.55151.
Alternative scenario
Above 0.57680, expect 0.58829 and 0.59512.
Comment
Price is approaching our first target at 0.55151, which may trigger a pullback; a clear break below it would open the way to 0.54471. RSI is at 50 and MACD is above its signal line.
Full level ladder
| Resistance 3 | 0.59512 |
| Resistance 2 | 0.58829 |
| Pivot | 0.57680 |
| Price | 0.56111 |
| Support 1 | 0.55151 |
| Support 2 | 0.54471 |
| Support 3 | 0.53790 |
AI market story
Updated 2026-10-28 13:18 UTC+8NZD/USD leans bearish, watch 0.55651 support
NZD/USD trades at 0.56068, down 0.13% on the day and up 0.7% over 20 days, yet below the 20-day average of 0.56364 and the 50-day of 0.57415. Daily RSI fell from 51 to 38, and the lower Bollinger band at 0.55606 plus the 20-day low of 0.55651 are the key lines to hold.
What you should know
Price journey: up or down lately?
It has fallen recently. The pair is down 0.13% on the day and up only 0.04% over five days, while the 20-day gain of 0.7% leaves price at 0.56068, below the 20-day average of 0.56364.
Trend: which way is the bigger picture pointing?
The bigger direction is lower. The 50-day average at 0.57415 sits above price, and the 20-day at 0.56364 also caps gains, with the technical read bearish across short, medium and long term.
Momentum: gaining or losing strength?
Momentum is fading. Daily RSI dropped to 38 from 51 five days ago, and the MACD histogram has shrunk for three straight days even though MACD remains above its signal line.
Key levels: which prices matter next?
Watch 0.56300 and 0.56364 overhead; failing to reclaim them keeps the bias soft. Below, eye 0.55841 and 0.55758, then the lower band at 0.55606 and the 20-day low of 0.55651.
Patterns: what is forming on the chart?
A bearish flag is forming on the 5-minute chart with a target of 0.55755 and invalidation at 0.56202. Both intraday and daily views are bearish, with the daily pivot at 0.57680.
FOMC and core PCE to lift NZD volatility
The key event is the US FOMC decision at 02:00 on 10-29, with the lower bound seen at 3.75 and upper at 4. In the past 16 releases, NZD/USD moved 49.2 points on average and 84.4 points at most over four hours, about 2.2 times normal, rising only 31% of the time. Core PCE is due at 20:30.
What you should know
What is coming up on the calendar?
In order: the FOMC lower and upper bound decisions at 02:00 on 10-29, expected at 3.75 and 4; Google and Microsoft earnings calls at 04:30 and 05:00; September core PCE month-on-month at 20:30, expected 0.3 versus 0.2 prior; and Q3 annualized GDP first estimate, expected 3 versus 2.2 prior.
How much do these events usually move the price?
After the past 16 FOMC releases, NZD/USD averaged 49.2 points and peaked at 84.4 points over four hours, about 2.2 times normal, rising 31% of the time. Core PCE averaged 30.1 points with a 47.0-point max; GDP averaged 29.8 points with a 47.0-point max, about 1.1 times normal.
This content was generated with the assistance of AI from the Borearis Research Team's market data and analysis. For reference only; not investment advice. How we produce this content
Volatility stop
Daily uptrendsince 2026-10-21
Long trailing stop0.56206
Distance from price0.17%
NZD/USD is above its daily long trailing stop. Long positions can reference 0.56206 (0.17% away); it only moves up. A daily close below 0.56206 signals the trend is weakening.
Calculated from the 22-day high (low) minus (plus) 3 times the average true range on the daily chart, and it only moves in the trend's favour. A common trailing-stop method, for reference only; not investment advice.
Thick line = trailing stop (green uptrend, red downtrend); vertical line = latest trend change; last 90 daily bars
Technical picture
- Price is below the 20- and 50-day moving averages, a weak medium-term structure.
- Daily RSI is 38, soft momentum.
- Daily MACD is above its signal line; daily momentum is up.
- Price is inside the daily Bollinger Bands (0.55611 to 0.57121).
Related economic events this week
| 10-27 22:00 | United States Oct Conference Board Consumer Confidence IndexAfter 24 past releases, NZD/USD moved 20.6 pips on average in 4 hours · max 44.8 pips | 91.7 |
| 10-28 09:00 | New Zealand Official Cash RateAfter 14 past releases, NZD/USD moved 46.3 pips on average in 4 hours (2.4× normal) · max 74.3 pips | 2.75 |
| 10-29 02:00 | United States FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) HighAfter 16 past releases, NZD/USD moved 49.2 pips on average in 4 hours (2.2× normal) · max 84.4 pips | 3.75 |
| 10-29 02:00 | United States FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) HighAfter 16 past releases, NZD/USD moved 49.2 pips on average in 4 hours (2.2× normal) · max 84.4 pips | 4 |
| 10-29 04:30 | United States Alphabet Q3 Earnings Call High | — |
| 10-29 05:00 | United States Microsoft Q3 Earnings Call High | — |
| 10-29 20:30 | United States Sep Core PCE Price Index MoM HighAfter 23 past releases, NZD/USD moved 30.1 pips on average in 4 hours · max 47.0 pips | 0.3 |
| 10-29 20:30 | United States 3Q Real GDP Annualized QoQ Prelim HighAfter 23 past releases, NZD/USD moved 29.8 pips on average in 4 hours · max 47.0 pips | 3 |
Times in UTC+8. Grey = forecast. Full economic calendar →
News and sentiment for NZD/USD
SentimentNegative 34
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7-day sentiment
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Trade signals for NZD/USD
Short-term Signals 30-minute · held a few hours to a day
| Signal time | Bias | Entry | Status | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 16:30 | Bearish | 0.56871 | Stopped out | -1.25−9.1 pips |
| Oct 14, 2026 18:30 | Bearish | 0.56175 | Target hit | +2.76+21.0 pips |
| Oct 07, 2026 19:00 | Bearish | 0.56012 | Closed at time limit | +0.27+2.5 pips |
| Sep 11, 2026 16:00 | Bearish | 0.58263 | Closed at time limit | +0.85+7.5 pips |
| Sep 10, 2026 16:00 | Bearish | 0.58481 | Target hit | +2.79+24.0 pips |
All short-term signals and results →
Swing Signals 1-hour and 4-hour · held a day to a week
No recent swing signals for NZD/USD.
Chart patterns in play for NZD/USD
No active 15-minute to 4-hour patterns for NZD/USD right now.
FAQ
Where are NZD/USD support and resistance levels today?
Intraday resistance: 0.56300, 0.56439, 0.56522. Support: 0.55841, 0.55758, 0.55675. Pivot: 0.56300 (updated Oct 28, 2026 15:09 UTC+8).
Is NZD/USD bullish or bearish now?
Intraday: bearish. Short-term (daily): bearish. Bearish below 0.56300, targeting 0.55841 and then 0.55758.
How has NZD/USD been trading lately?
NZD/USD leans bearish, watch 0.55651 support. NZD/USD trades at 0.56068, down 0.13% on the day and up 0.7% over 20 days, yet below the 20-day average of 0.56364 and the 50-day of 0.57415. Daily RSI fell from 51 to 38, and the lower Bollinger band at 0.55606 plus the 20-day low of 0.55651 are the key lines to hold.
How do I read the NZD/USD technical score?
Currently short-term bearish, medium-term bearish, long-term bearish. The technical score combines several pieces of technical evidence, such as moving-average position, momentum, recent performance, our level views and active chart patterns, into short-, intermediate- and long-term readings. More filled segments mean the evidence points the same way; neutral means bullish and bearish evidence are balanced.
Where should a stop loss go on NZD/USD?
NZD/USD is above its daily long trailing stop. Long positions can reference 0.56206 (0.17% away); it only moves up. A daily close below 0.56206 signals the trend is weakening.
Which economic events matter for NZD/USD next?
FOMC and core PCE to lift NZD volatility. The key event is the US FOMC decision at 02:00 on 10-29, with the lower bound seen at 3.75 and upper at 4. In the past 16 releases, NZD/USD moved 49.2 points on average and 84.4 points at most over four hours, about 2.2 times normal, rising only 31% of the time. Core PCE is due at 20:30.
What is the pivot?
The pivot is the line in the sand for the view. In a bullish view it sits below price; a close below it invalidates the view and a new set of levels is drawn. The reverse applies to a bearish view.
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