Sep Core PCE Price Index MoM Preview: How Gold, DXY and S&P 500 May React
The US Sep Core PCE Price Index MoM is due on Oct 29 at 20:30 (UTC+8), with expectations at 0.3% versus a prior 0.2%. This preview explains the data in plain language, reviews current levels, nearby resistance and support for gold, the US Dollar Index and the S&P 500, and outlines possible scenarios if the result comes in above or below expectations.
Tomorrow, Oct 29 at 20:30 (UTC+8), the US will release the Sep Core PCE Price Index MoM. This is a inflation measure often cited when the Federal Reserve discusses price pressures, because it excludes volatile food and energy prices and gives a clearer view of underlying inflation. A higher reading usually suggests inflation pressure remains firm, while a lower reading suggests it is easing. For gold, the US Dollar Index and the S&P 500, this data can shape expectations around the interest rate path, so volatility may increase around the release.
The event and expectations
- Event: US Sep Core PCE Price Index MoM
- Release time: 2026-10-29 20:30 (UTC+8)
- Expectation: 0.3%
- Prior: 0.2%
Also on the same day at 21:15 (UTC+8), the euro area will release the ECB Main Refinancing Rate, with an expectation of 2.65% and a prior of 2.65%. For more event times, see the economic calendar.
Where key markets stand now
Gold (XAUUSD) is at 4,045.89, with a previous close of 4,062.79, nearby resistance at 4,446.08, nearby support at 3,799.26, a 20-day moving average of 4,116.76, a 50-day moving average of 4,279.59 and RSI14 at 39.7. See the Gold (XAU/USD) analysis page for more technical detail.
US Dollar Index (DXY) is at 102.179, with a previous close of 102.106, nearby resistance at 103.020, nearby support at 101.077, a 20-day moving average of 101.827, a 50-day moving average of 100.470 and RSI14 at 63.0. See the US Dollar Index (DXY) analysis page.
S&P 500 (SPX500) is at 7,738.8, with a previous close of 7,730.6, nearby resistance at 7,966.5, nearby support at 7,574.1, a 20-day moving average of 7,739.8, a 50-day moving average of 7,706.3 and RSI14 at 52.2. See the S&P 500 analysis page for more.
If the result comes in above expectations
If the Sep Core PCE Price Index MoM comes in above the expected 0.3%, the market may read it as firmer inflation pressure, which could temper expectations for rate cuts. In that scenario, the US Dollar Index may firm, gold may face pressure, and the S&P 500 may see choppy trading as rate expectations shift. That said, the actual reaction will also depend on the broader market mood around the release, not just the single number.
If the result comes in below expectations
If the result comes in below the expected 0.3%, the market may read it as softer inflation pressure, which could lean expectations toward easier policy. In that scenario, the US Dollar Index may soften, gold may find support, and the S&P 500 may draw attention if risk appetite improves. Markets do not always follow the script, so watch for volatility after the release.
What to watch around the release
Spreads may widen and volatility may increase around the data release, and the fill price for pending or market orders may differ from what you expect. Whichever scenario you are watching, set a stop-loss first and manage risk on each trade. For additional signals, see swing signals.
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Borearis Research Team · For information only, not investment advice. Trading involves risk.
