How is the break-even win rate calculated?

Break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + reward-to-risk ratio). A 2R trade needs about 33.3%.

Does it include spread?

No. Spread and commission push the required win rate higher.

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RISK / REWARD

Reward-to-risk = target distance ÷ stop distance; the break-even win rate is 1 ÷ (1 + ratio). Higher ratios need a lower win rate.

The break-even win rate excludes spread and commission; your real win rate must be higher to be profitable long term.