Victor Lim林偉誠

The market sits in a sensitive window crowded with macro events. The Fed's two-day policy meeting is underway, with roughly 90% of the market expecting rates to stay unchanged; traders are more focused on whether a tightening bias remains for the year, and risk assets are broadly under pressure ahead of the decision. BTCUSD dipped to around 79700 at one point, and strength in Asian tech stocks failed to pull crypto along. Geopolitically, the US midterm elections and US-Iran tensions continue to weigh on risk appetite, while structural risks in the AI sector and stalled progress in equity tokenization add near-term pressure. Yet spot-side demand has not faded: bitcoin treasury-type listed companies bought a net USD 510 million in a single week, up more than 40% week on week, with combined holdings now about 5.8% of circulating market cap; Strive added over 6,000 coins at an average of USD 82,700. Institutional research also argues the bear market ended mid-year, that we are now in an accumulation phase, and offers a long-term case for a return to USD 125,000, which gives fundamental backing to the weekly direction. This is a W1 weekly view, not a short-term rebound trade.

On the technical side, H4 is neutral: RSI around 52.6, MACD still positive at 156.76, ATR about 670 points, indicating the four-hour chart has not turned bearish and is consolidating at highs. D1 is also neutral, with RSI at just 45.2 and MACD at minus 260.11, so daily momentum remains weak, while ATR at 1868 points shows the daily range has yet to contract. H1 is neutral too, with RSI 61.1 and MACD 65.85, slightly warm short term but not enough to confirm a breakout. Overall, all three timeframes are neutral with insufficient momentum and no clear direction, but H4 shows no reversal signal; combined with the daily chart having pulled back about 34 trading days from its high with a decline of less than 10% and a volume-price divergence forming on the four-hour structure, the conditions for the correction to end are building. Key support sits in the 78000-79000 zone, resistance above at 82500-84500, and the current price of 80731.36 is in the low-level accumulation band just above support.

We go with a light long position in the direction of the trend: enter at the current 80731.36 without waiting for a pullback. The stop-loss is set at 79783.19 based on recent volatility (ATR), representing about 950 points of risk and placed above the key 79000 support; a break there would invalidate the divergence structure. Target 1 is 81300.26, the first volatility-based objective; on arrival, close half the position and move the stop to entry to make the remainder risk-free. Target 2 is 81869.17, the second volatility-based objective, giving a risk-reward of about 1.2. Because momentum across the three timeframes is unclear, we recommend keeping the initial position within 50% of the planned size, adding only if H4 closes and holds above 81300, and strictly enforcing trailing-stop discipline.

Bitcoin is in an observation window at the tail end of its correction. The daily chart has been pulling back from its high for more than thirty trading sessions, with a maximum drawdown of roughly ten percent, and price has repeatedly tested the 78,000 to 79,000 USD support band. Market research is broadly constructive: on one hand, a listed company raised capital through perpetual preferred shares and added against the trend, buying more than seven thousand coins within two weeks to lift its holdings to fourth among listed companies, a sign that some long-term capital keeps absorbing supply during the decline; on the other hand, on-chain and derivatives flows show signs of a shift from short to long, with one large account closing about ten million USD of shorts and then reversing into longs at an average fill near 79,810 USD. On the macro side, the rate path and liquidity expectations remain the dominant variables, and marginal moves in the dollar and real yields will determine how much risk appetite absorbs supply, though no clear directional catalyst has emerged yet.

Technically, this is a daily-timeframe view. D1 direction is neutral, RSI around 42, MACD still negative and ATR around 1,885 points, indicating the daily chart remains in a corrective structure but downside momentum is flattening; H4 is also neutral, RSI around 42.2, MACD slightly positive and ATR around 716 points, a weak range; H1 is neutral, RSI exactly 50 and MACD around 8.3, with short-term momentum unclear. All three timeframes are neutral and momentum is insufficient, so this long is a mild left-side positioning rather than a trend-following chase. On key levels, 78,000 to 79,000 USD below is core support, 82,500 to 84,500 USD above is the resistance zone, and the current price of 80,054.36 USD sits at the upper edge of the support band, giving a relatively clear risk boundary.

The recommendation is to enter long directly at the current price of 80,054.36 USD, with a stop-loss at 78,893.92 USD set according to recent volatility (ATR), corresponding to about 1,160 points of risk. Target 1 is 80,750.63 USD and target 2 is 81,446.89 USD, both set by volatility, with a risk-reward of about 1.2 to target 2. On position management, close half the position at target 1 to lock in profit and move the stop-loss up to the entry price of 80,054.36 USD, putting the remaining position in a no-loss position; hold the remaining half to target 2 or until the stop-loss triggers. Because momentum is unclear across the three timeframes, the confidence rating is medium; keep each position within a tolerable share of total capital and avoid over-adding before direction is confirmed. If price breaks below 78,893.92 USD decisively, exit unconditionally and reassess once a trend is established.

This is a daily (D1) view. Bitcoin recently broke below the 80,000 USD threshold and sentiment has visibly weakened, with single-day net outflows from spot ETFs hitting a multi-month high, showing that marginal institutional demand is being eroded by selling pressure. At the same time, enthusiasm for crypto-native innovation narratives has cooled, with some capital rotating toward frontier areas such as artificial intelligence, leaving medium-term valuation anchors more dependent on macro liquidity. On the macro side, the market remains divided on the Fed's subsequent easing path, and risk assets carry high pricing sensitivity, so any data surprise could amplify volatility. Notably, research backtests on Bitcoin's medium- and long-term behavior lean positive, arguing that trend-following strategies are more efficient on Bitcoin than simple buy-and-hold, but this is a strategy-level long bias rather than a basis for entry right now.

Technically, H1 is bearish with RSI around 37.1 and MACD negative, while H4 is likewise bearish with RSI around 35.2, forming an H1+H4 multi-timeframe bearish alignment with short and medium-term direction in agreement, the strongest short-term bearish signal scenario. However, D1 is neutral with RSI around 41.3 and has not given same-direction confirmation, so this cannot be treated as three-timeframe alignment. D1 ATR is around 1930 points, far above H4's 669 points, indicating the daily range remains wide and that oversold readings on short-term indicators may not signal a bottom at the daily scale. On key levels, 80,000 USD is a psychological and round-number threshold, with 75,000 USD below as the secondary support widely watched in research views; to the upside, price must reclaim H4's short-term moving averages and the prior congestion zone to confirm exhaustion of bearish momentum.

Strategy: multi-timeframe signals on BTCUSD have not lined up in one direction, so the final call is to stay on the sidelines. Until technicals and fundamentals align, BTCUSD is not in a recommended entry zone. Traders without a position should stay patient, and existing holders should stick to their own risk controls. Specific entry, take-profit and stop-loss levels will be published once the signal is confirmed.

BTCUSD sits at a critical juncture where macro noise and flow dynamics are pulling in opposite directions. Policy uncertainty from the US midterms is transmitting to price through risk appetite. Market research suggests the sharp shakeouts around elections are mostly position redistribution rather than trend reversal, and bitcoin has posted positive returns in the year following each of the past four elections, keeping seasonal statistics skewed to the upside. Near-term pressure, however, cannot be ignored: single-day net outflows from spot ETFs hit a multi-month high, with BlackRock and Fidelity products bleeding in tandem, showing institutional demand is being eroded by selling pressure. At the same time, the crypto-native venture narrative has cooled as capital rotates toward frontier areas such as AI, weakening marginal buying. Bitcoin is now deeply embedded in the traditional financial system, and its high beta ties it closely to US equities and dollar liquidity; until liquidity clearly turns accommodative, fundamentals are unlikely to provide a one-sided push.

On the technical side, this is a daily-timeframe view. D1 direction is neutral, RSI around 44.2, MACD histogram at -301 still below the zero line, and ATR as high as 1981, indicating large daily swings but no directional momentum. H4 is seller-led for this cycle, with RSI 42.9 in weak territory, MACD -81.9 still negative, and ATR 734 showing intraday ranges remain damaging. H1 has returned to neutral, with RSI 52.7 and MACD turning positive at 90.9, hinting at short-term stabilization. Across the three timeframes the picture is seller-led but momentum is unclear; H4 bearish alongside neutral D1 means downside pressure exists without daily-level confirmation. On key levels, watch whether spot can hold recent lows; only a H4 close below the prior low on expanding volume would qualify as trend continuation. To the upside, watch whether H1 can pull H4 into a turn, with recovery of the short-term moving average cluster needed as a stabilization signal.

Strategy: multi-timeframe signals on BTCUSD have not lined up in one direction, so the final call is to stay on the sidelines. The key range to watch is 79668.0533 – 81660.9533, with a midpoint of 80440.8467. Until price breaks decisively above the upper bound or below the lower bound, and the H4 and D1 signals align, BTCUSD is not in a recommended entry zone. Traders without a position should stay patient, and existing holders should stick to their own risk controls. Specific entry, take-profit and stop-loss levels will be published once the signal is confirmed.

Bitcoin is trading in a high-level range while the macro backdrop continues to weigh on risk appetite. Weakness in tech stocks and rebounding energy prices are lifting inflation expectations, cooling hopes for looser liquidity; at the same time, single-day net outflows from spot ETFs hit a multi-month high, suggesting some capital is taking profits at elevated levels, though medium- to long-term institutional allocation demand remains intact and cumulative net inflows are still positive. Research views on the outlook are clearly split: one camp expects election and policy uncertainty to trigger a short-term shakeout, while the other stresses the historical pattern of positive returns in the year following elections. With bullish and bearish fundamentals intertwined and no one-sided driver, this is the core reason for staying neutral this round. This is a D1-level view; shorter-timeframe signals serve only as timing references.

On the technical side, H1 and H4 are both bearish, forming a confluence structure where the short- and medium-term timeframes point the same way: H1 RSI is around 40.7 with MACD negative, and H4 RSI is around 39.5 with MACD deeply negative, indicating insufficient rebound momentum and continued selling pressure dominating the tape. However, D1 direction is neutral, with RSI around 45.3 and MACD negative but not accelerating, meaning the daily timeframe has not yet confirmed a clear downtrend and the overall picture remains high-level consolidation. D1 ATR is close to 1991 points, implying relatively wide swings, and whether key support holds will determine the medium-term direction; only if H4 breaks below recent lows and D1 turns bearish would conditions for a trend-following short be in place. Conversely, if D1 returns to neutral-to-bullish, short-term bearish signals could quickly lose validity.

Strategy: multi-timeframe signals on BTCUSD have not lined up in one direction, so the final call is to stay on the sidelines. The key range to watch is 80447.9933 – 81995.8733, with a midpoint of 81254.4367. Until price breaks decisively above the upper bound or below the lower bound, and the H4 and D1 signals align, BTCUSD is not in a recommended entry zone. Traders without a position should stay patient, and existing holders should stick to their own risk controls. Specific entry, take-profit and stop-loss levels will be published once the signal is confirmed.

This is a daily (D1) view. Bitcoin is repeatedly testing the 80K threshold, with the average holding cost of US spot ETFs and treasury companies concentrated in the 80K to 81.5K range; after an earlier dip to 80.1K, buyers quickly stepped back in, suggesting some absorption capacity in that zone. However, treasury company purchasing power has clearly shrunk, with recent monthly accumulation far below last year's peak, and demand broadening has yet to be confirmed. Above, 85K to 87.5K combines the cost line of medium- to long-term holders, spot sell walls and liquidation clusters, forming triple resistance. On the macro side, the market remains divided on the Fed's policy path and the liquidity outlook, and risk assets lack a clear directional catalyst, leaving fundamentals in a range-bound setup with support below and caps above.

Technically, the H4 timeframe is bearish, with RSI around 39.7 and MACD in negative territory, showing sellers dominate this timeframe; but H1 is neutral, with RSI around 34.3 already near short-term oversold while MACD remains positive, indicating downside momentum is fading. D1 is neutral, with RSI around 45.8 and MACD negative but not accelerating, while the daily ATR is as high as about 2044 points, implying elevated volatility. Overall, although sellers dominate H4, short-term and daily momentum lack clarity and direction is not yet established, making this a typical range-bound market rather than a trend. On key levels, 80K is the bulls' line of defense, 87.5K is the bears' line of defense, and 85K in between is the first resistance.

Strategy: multi-timeframe signals on BTCUSD have not lined up in one direction, so the final call is to stay on the sidelines. Until technicals and fundamentals align, BTCUSD is not in a recommended entry zone. Traders without a position should stay patient, and existing holders should stick to their own risk controls. Specific entry, take-profit and stop-loss levels will be published once the signal is confirmed.